Who you gonna believe…

9 Aug

Saturday, voters go to the polls for the primary election.

Among the races to be decided is the Democratic primary for the US Senate nomination in Hawaii.

Two polls – two different predicted winners.

That’s why they say the only poll that counts is the one on election day.

The Benson STrategy Group says its survey of likely Democratic primary voters in Hawaii (including those who have already voted via absentee) show Congresswoman Hirono is far ahead of Ed Case.

The pollster gives Hirono a 17% lead over Case.

It says 50 percent indicate Hirono as the winner, followed by 33 percent for Ed Case, with 14 percent not knowing or refusing to say.

The company doesn’t say who paid for the poll, but you can bet it wasn’t done for free out of the kindness of its heart.

Then we have Civil Beat that says it’s poll shows Ed Case with a small lead and the momentum – 46 to 45 percent.

So, which is correct?

Both. Neither.

You can argue methodology all night but the fact remains a poll is nothing more than a snapshot of a moment in time when the people were asked the questions.

People being what they are can change their mind ten minutes later.

Who you ask, how you ask, what you ask and the time of day all make a difference.

Sometimes a poll is fairly accurate and sometimes it’s way off base.

A lot can – and will – change between the times these polls were taken and the time people actually vote.

Just vote for who you want.

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