Predicting the election

24 Aug

Predicting the eventual winner of the presidential election is big business.

Everyone has an opinion and some have the track record to back it up.

The University of Colorado has correctly picked the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980.

It says the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

With all the blubbering going on, its analysis says the key is the economy.

The computer was stuffed with economic data from all the states and the District of Columbia, and included both state and national unemployment numbers as well as changes in real per capita income, and some other stuff it didn’t mention.

Before we continue, remember the number one rule of computers:
Garbage in – garbage out.

With that established, the computer says President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs.

And it says Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent.

The university says “the economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”

Remember, it correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992.

It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.

What’s interesting about this analysis is the prediction that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

All of this only counts if you’re a real fan of Romney or Obama.

Then again, the old saying that the only poll that counts is the one on election day may (or may not) bring that 30-year streak to an end.

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