Waiting for the Schatz fallout

27 Dec

Neil-Abercrombie3-sizedIt’s been about 24 hours since Governor Neil Abercrombie picked Lt. Governor Brian Schatz to fill the remaining term of Dan Inouye.

We don’t pretend to know Abercrombie’s thinking.

In fact, he is famous for doing exactly opposite of what you would think he would/should do.

Now that we’ve covered our butts, let’s take some guesses (in no particular order) as to why he chose Schatz over Inouye’s desire for Colleen Hanabusa.

1) With Inouye gone, Abercrombie how heads the Democratic Party in Hawaii.
We see this is a statement that there’s a new sheriff in town.

2) It makes a statement that the Inouye/Akaka era is over.

3) Schatz was the former head of the Democratic Party here and also headed up the Hawaii campaign for President Obama.

4) Abercrombie always makes his statement in a sweeping and politically over-the-top way.

5) Abercrombie may think this will increase his re-election chances, but in reality it will only split the Democratic Party.
He’s forgetting (or ignoring) how popular and loved Inouye was in Hawaii.
The Dan Inouye faithful can not be pleased with the Governor ignoring his last wish.

Abercrombie is also flirting with the first three laws of politics:

1) Perception is everything
2) There is a downside to everything
3) Loyalty is everything

A good politician takes all into account automatically.

A fair politician has them pointed out by someone – and listens.

A poor political gets beat up by the media and public.

A senior politician like Dan Inouye, has powerful and faithful friends.
If you offend or ignore them, they will bury you.

Mufi Hannemann learned this when he replaced Jeremy Harris due to term limits and treated many of Harris’ cabinet members poorly.

Come re-election, a large number of them worked for the other side and Hannemann crashed and burned big time.

Karma can be a wonderful thing.

Abercrombie’s statement that appointing Colleen Hanabusa to Inouye’s seat would open a free-for-all and give Republican Charles Djou a shot at Congress is all shibi.

We have no doubt Djou would run if given the opportunity, but he’s never pulled enough votes outside Hawaii Kai to beat a reasonably strong democratic candidate.

As for Mazie Hirono, the committee never considered her.

We see it as payback for not being good at whatever it is she does.

So Schatz gets sworn into office this afternoon and becomes the Senior Senator from Hawaii with a bit of seniority over all the freshmen who start January 3rd.

Schatz is at least being honest, talking about being in office for years to get the super senior status where a Senator can actually do something.

It is somewhat refreshing to see a politician admit they want to stay forever.

So, will there be a payback to the Governor?

Of course.
When and how it will come is something we’ll just have to wait and see.

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